WRF and ROMS forecast summary for July 27

The dominant features on the weather scene today are a high pressure ridge extending northward along the east side of the GOA and a low pressure center rapidly approaching the Alaska Peninsula. Larger-scale forecast models are having difficulty with this low and as a result today's PWS-WRF run
was not initialized especially well. In addition, as we enter a period of weaker winds, PWS-WRF is struggling a bit with forecasting wind direction. Winds today have decreased to between 5 and 15 knots over much of the PWS. For the most part, the wind direction continues to be from the east to
southeast. PWS-WRF forecasts call for a general continuation of this moderate east to southeast flow through the coming 24 hours, but note that this is a relatively low confidence forecast due to difficulties handling the approaching low pressure center.

The flow within much of the PWS as revealed by drifter trajectories and
ROMS nowcasts/forecasts continues to be generally northward to northwestward.
In addition, ROMS has been suggesting for several days that this flow - which enters through the Hinchinbrook Entrance - has been exiting through the Knight Island Passage/Montague Strait.
This flow pattern has been confirmed by recent drifter trajectories, including one released in the Knight Island Passage (see Figure attached that can be generated at the JPL OurOcean/PWS portal). The tidal range at all stations continues to slowly decrease from its recent peak. The ROMS ensemble forecast was delayed today (due to the downtime at the JPL supercomputing center), otherwise there were no significant operational issues.